Monday, March 30, 2009

Where do we go from here?


For the ailing Pacers, a season of “What ifs?” is slipping into the realm of “What now?”

With a close loss to Chicago on Saturday and another injury to add to the list in Troy Murphy’s sprained MCL, the Pacers’ slim playoff hopes are fading considerably. There are eight games left in the season and we continue to sit 4.5 games back from the Bulls and the final spot in the Eastern Conference Playoffs. Although six of our eight remaining games are at home, we’ll have to beat Chicago, San Antonio, Atlanta, Detroit, and Cleveland to have any chance of making the playoffs. With any luck at least Cleveland will be on cruise control when we finally play them, but that won’t even matter if we don’t win Tuesday’s game against Chicago. The mathematics say a playoff run is possible, but to what end?

What if we DO beat all those teams and make it to the playoffs? What if Troy Murphy does come back from what has been described as an excruciatingly painful injury before the end of the season? What if a playoff berth does mean extra revenue for the cash-strapped club? Would it really matter? Would that cash-flow really extend past the first round? Would we really be able to make a showing against the Cavs?

What if?

Ugh.

At some point the towel will have to be thrown in. Although I’m not ready to give up YET, I promise that if we lose this next game on Tuesday it is done and finished. The Pacers will be lottery bound and liking it.

But no matter what happens in regards to the playoffs, the eternal question of any lost soul must be asked: What now?

The future of the franchise has obviously been placed on the shoulders of Danny Granger, and personally there are no shoulders in the NBA besides Lebron, DWade, Kobe, and CP3’s that I would rather have this franchise rest on. But does Granger belong in the company of such talent?

Heck no. Not yet anyway.

Last week, ESPN’s Chris Broussard wrote an article highlighting Granger’s underdog status because of the Pacers lackluster performance this season:

Is a guy who puts up huge stats for a bad team as good as his numbers?


Being able to reconcile the space between a player's stats and his team's record is a big part of what separates championship-level talent evaluators from the recycled masses. All sorts of x factors come into play: Who is the guy scoring against? How does he get his points? Is he effective in crunch time? And the consensus on Granger, not just in front offices, but on sidelines and in locker rooms as well, is that he's legit.

Danny Granger is efficient. Even as Granger acknowledges the lone-wolf theory—that on a poor team someone is bound to post impressive stats—he is quick to add a corollary: "Some say it's harder to score on a bad team because everybody's loading up on you."

…Granger's shooting percentage of 43.2 isn't blistering, but it's within percentage points of (Joe) Johnson's as well as Kobe's in both his last season with and first season without Shaq.

But still, the stigma is there. It’s pretty well known that Granger has improved by 5 ppg in each of the four seasons he’s played in the NBA, but can that trend continue? Exactly how high is Granger’s peak? The coolest thing about Broussard’s article is how honestly it portrays Granger as an underdog, and how Granger himself accepts that label. He knows that he is not yet at the level of Kobe and Co., and that’s what drives him.

"It's not an indictment of him that the Pacers aren't winning," says an Eastern Conference scout. "But if he's your best player—which he is in Indiana—you're in trouble. You're not going to win at a high level." One West exec, referencing the NBA's most heavenly duo, puts it more poetically but just as bluntly: "Granger can be a Scottie to somebody's Mike. He just can't be Mike."

… "I'm about 70% of the player I can be," (Granger) says…"I can definitely be the No. 1 guy on a really good team," he says without a hint of doubt. "People can say I'm not good enough, and I'll just keep proving them wrong—and smiling inside."

Read the rest of the article (what little I didn’t steal) at:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espnmag/story?id=4018165

If Danny himself is to be believed, then the future is looking bright.

But not even Kobe, Lebron, or even MJ can do it all themselves.

If Danny’s surrounding cast can stay healthy, the Pacers will be a legitimate run and gun threat next year. Although they are in position for a lottery draft pick in an admittedly weak draft class, they are also in possession of young talent that has potential, a lot of which was on display this past weekend.

Brandon Rush had back to back 29 pt games, finally relishing the starting 2 spot and doing his best Danny Granger impression. Against both Chicago and Washington, his teammates were setting him picks at the top of the key and on the baseline, and over and over again he would pop up and knock down the J with a confidence that he’s never shown until now. It’s not just jumpers though – he shows flashes of athleticism on drives, and O’Brien himself admits that Rush is the Pacers’ best athlete. If teams pay too much attention to Danny, then Rush has shown this past weekend that he can make them pay.

Even The Roy Hibbert Project is showing SOME progress. After getting blocked by Tyrus Thomas 102930185 times on Saturday, Roy came back with 12 pts and 8 rbs in 16 minutes of play. The catch of course is that this was against the Washington Wizards, annnnnd Roy fouled out halfway into the third quarter. So you know, he’s still a project. But he’s OUR project.

These guys are the Pacers future. And when Dunleavy, Daniels, and Murph come back, we’ll have a team brimming with depth and range. The starting five of Jack, Rush, Granger, Murph, and Hibbert, backed up by TJ Ford, Marquis Daniels, Dunleavy, Jeff Foster and Rasho? Plus a draft pick? That’s a pretty legitamate rotation if you ask me. Just don’t start thinking about the What ifs.

(Can they stay healthy? Do we have too many redundant wing players? Are the Pacers moving?)

Stupid future. You know so much more than me.

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